Dogecoin Price On The Edge: Breakout Or Breakdown—What’s Next?

In a technical update posted on X, crypto analyst More Crypto Online (@Morecryptoonl) presented a one-hour DOGE/USD chart (Binance) illustrating a precarious sideways movement and a potential turning point for the meme coin. At press time, Dogecoin is stuck around the $0.25 region, barely moving after a substantial drop in early February, with little to confirm a definitive bottom in place.

From the chart’s labeling, the analyst employs a blend of Elliott Wave counts and Fibonacci retracement levels to map out Dogecoin’s possible next steps. Notably, a broad corrective sequence labeled as (1), (4), C, A, B, W, X, Y highlights multiple overlapping waves—indicative of an extended correction rather than a simple price pullback.

In the latest leg downward, the analyst’s markings show a major swing low around $0.21–$0.22, which coincides with a potential wave (4) on the chart, although there is an “alt 4?” label suggesting this may still be an alternative count which drags the DOGE price even deeper in one last correction.

The Fibonacci retracements and extensions plotted in the $0.22–$0.24 region, with key levels including the 50% retracement at $0.2446, a 78.6% level near $0.2206, and a 100% extension around $0.2338, are key support levels. These overlapping zones show where DOGE’s price bounced and consolidated over the past several sessions.

Despite the intricate wave structure, the analyst points out there is “no clear confirmation of a bottom.” The price has been range-bound in the mid-$0.25 territory, lacking the momentum usually seen in robust trend reversals. More Crypto Online underscores two primary levels overhead that could confirm a bullish reversal: $0.293 – Breaking above this zone may offer the first tangible indication that buyers are taking control and $0.341 – A close above $0.341 would serve as a stronger confirmation of trend reversal and likely invalidate current lower-wave counts.

Until these thresholds are breached, the analyst remains cautious, noting that while they “lean toward the low being in,” there is still no definitive evidence to support it. A crucial observation is the muted bounce off recent lows while the Bitcoin price saw a strong move upwards on Thursday.

According to the chart, each subsequent uptick has been shallow, failing to gain meaningful traction and hinting that sellers remain active. This underscores the broader uncertainty. If buyers cannot push above $0.293 soon, Dogecoin’s sideways drift could persist. A deeper dip below $0.22 could give rise to a more extended corrective pattern, labeled on the chart as (5) or C, challenging bullish hopes that the last swing low is the cycle bottom.

In the words of the analyst: “Despite some charts showing strong moves today, the DOGE price has remained stagnant, with no clear confirmation of a bottom. The price continues to move sideways, lacking decisive momentum. A break above $0.293 would be the first step in signaling a potential reversal, with stronger confirmation coming from a move beyond $0.341. While I lean toward the low being in, there’s still no definitive evidence. So far, the upside move from the last low has been too small to be meaningful.”

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.25.