Is the XRP price rally over for now?

Key takeaways:

• XRP forms a double top and rising wedge, signaling short-term downside risk toward $1.94.

• NUPL indicates traders are in denial, resembling past pre-crash phases.

• Long-term charts still point to bullish targets between $3.69 and $17.

XRP (XRP) has rebounded by more than 50% in a month after forming a local low at $1.80. Improving risk appetite and prospects of an “altseason” have boosted its price.

Could XRP rally further from current levels or risk a pullback in the coming days? Let’s examine.

XRP formed a double top near $2.65, signaling a possible trend reversal. The pattern includes two clear peaks and a neckline around $2.47. After the second peak, XRP dropped below the neckline, confirming the bearish setup.

A confirmed breakdown below this level points to a downside target near $2.30. The double top suggests weakening momentum after a strong rally. If buyers fail to break above $2.65, the pattern remains in play and bearish.

XRP also broke down from a rising wedge pattern, signaling a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. Recent failed attempts to break above the pattern’s upper trendline from the pattern reiterate the same.

A wedge breakdown is confirmed when the price falls below its lower trendline, which XRP appears to be attempting as of May 15. The cryptocurrency is additionally testing support from the 50-4H exponential moving average (50-4H EMA; the red wave).

Breaking below the support zone increases the chance of XRP falling another 20% to around $1.94. This level comes from measuring the height of the rising wedge pattern and subtracting it from the breakdown point.

The $2.00–$2.04 range is also important because it holds a large number of leveraged long positions worth around $50 million, according to data resource CoinGlass.

If XRP drops below this range, many of these positions could be forced to close, causing a long squeeze. That would add selling pressure and push the price closer to the $1.94 target.

XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has shifted into the Belief–Denial zone, shown in green on the Glassnode chart below. When in denial, many still expect prices to rise, even as momentum fades.

This NUPL level has historically marked the early stages of major corrections. For example, XRP entered this phase before sharp declines in 2018 and 2021.

If history repeats, XRP may face more downside in the short term, paving the way toward the price targets highlighted by the double top and rising wedge technical setups.

A counter analysis indicates a potential 45% rally toward $3.69 by June if a breakout from a multimonth falling wedge pattern plays out as intended.

However, if XRP falls back below the wedge’s upper trendline and loses support at the 20-day (purple) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMA), the bullish setup could be invalidated, risking a decline toward $1.75.

Several long-term XRP price projections have targets of $5.24 and even $17, based on symmetrical triangle patterns and Fibonacci extensions shown below.

Related: History rhymes? XRP price gained 400% the last time whale flows flipped

XRP’s long-term charts show a persistent bullish bias despite short-term pullback risks, indicating that the rally is probably not over.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.