Solana Market Structure Warns Of More Downside Despite Oversold Conditions

Solana’s price action continues to flash caution signals, even as momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions. The broader market structure remains tilted to the downside, with bearish waves still unfolding and key support levels under pressure. Until a clear shift in structure and a strong bullish impulse emerge, the risk of further downside remains firmly on the table. 

In the current follow-up wave outlook for Solana on the 1-hour timeframe, Elliott Waves Academy highlights that bearish control remains firmly intact. The price has already experienced a strong impulsive decline, marking the first leg of a broader downward trend. This move is likely unfolding as waves 3–5 within wave (1)/(A), suggesting that the market is still in the early stages of a larger bearish cycle.

At this stage, price is approaching the 100% extension of the prior wave, aligning with a key support level of $78.33. This zone is technically significant and could act as a temporary reaction point where buyers attempt to slow down the decline or trigger a short-term bounce. If the market fails to produce a convincing reversal at this support, the bearish structure is expected to extend further through the sub-waves of wave 5, reinforcing sustained selling pressure in the medium term.

From a short-term perspective, a wave 2 corrective rebound may develop before the next leg down. This bounce could take the form of a sharp, channeled recovery, often seen in counter-trend moves. However, any breakdown below key support during or after this correction would confirm that the broader bearish trend remains dominant, making it essential to monitor price action and structure at these levels closely.

According to More Crypto Online, the weekly RSI on Solana’s chart is currently showing similarities to the conditions observed during the 2022 bear market, just before the final bottom. This resemblance has drawn attention, as it may offer clues about the market’s current position within a broader cycle.

Many market participants have pointed to the oversold RSI reading seen in February as a signal that a recovery could be underway. However, relying solely on RSI without confirmation from price structure can be misleading, especially in extended bearish phases.

The current setup closely mirrors early 2022, when the market experienced a prolonged period of sideways movement before eventually forming a final low in both price and RSI. That historical pattern suggests that more consolidation or downside could still occur before a true bottom is established. For now, the comparison remains valid until a clear impulsive move to the upside is confirmed. Furthermore, a strong bullish impulse would significantly improve the overall outlook for Solana.