Where’s XRP Price Headed As Exchange Reserves Plunge To 1.7 Billion?

The XRP price might be trading in a bearish mood, but exchange-held supply behind the scenes points to a trend that could matter for price direction in the months ahead. A recent report from 21Shares shows that exchange reserves have dropped to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. The report shows how tightening liquidity, ETF demand, and investor behavior are quietly lining up for a possible repricing for XRP in 2026.

According to 21Shares, three pillars will shape XRP’s price action in 2026: regulatory clarity, substantial investor demand through spot ETFs, and real-world adoption of XRPL. As noted in a report by the Switzerland-based financial services company, exchange reserves are at roughly 1.7 billion XRP, their lowest level in over seven years.

This number coincides with an institutional demand in XRP ETFs, which is intersecting with a community that is increasingly adopting the outlook of holding. This narrowing of readily tradable supply is a catalyst for nonlinear repricing if sustained through the year. According to 21Shares, this is creating a supply-shock mechanism that mirrors the GameStop revolution on Reddit.

ETF products in the US have attracted over $1.3 billion in their first month with a record streak of consecutive inflows regardless of market conditions and outflows from other crypto ETFs. That persistent demand indicates, in the report’s view, a transition from speculative trading to structural capital allocation. This demand is still strong, although the cumulative total net inflow of these ETFs has since dropped to $1.18 billion at the time of writing.

The report also looked at the path set by Bitcoin spot ETFs as an analog, where nearly $38 billion of net inflows helped double Bitcoin’s price from $40,000 to $100,000 in under a year. Keeping this precedent in mind, XRP’s much smaller market capitalization at ETF launch, roughly one-eighth of Bitcoin’s, means that its inflows are going to exert a proportionally larger impact on price discovery. According to 21Shares, capital velocity on XRP could be higher, which is expected to amplify the reflexive price feedback loop if inflows continue.

XRP ETF Assets. Source: 21shares

The 21Shares report envisioned 2026 as a year where XRP’s valuation will be impacted by a combination of regulatory access, sustained ETF flows, and significant RWA volume on the XRP Ledger. In terms of pricing, it lays out a scenario range for 2026 that centers on a base case peak of $2.45 (assigned 50% probability), a bull case peak of $2.69 (30%), and a bear case peak of $1.60.

The base case assumes regulatory stability supports steady ETF inflows and gradual improvement in real-world utility, while the bull case leans on institutional-scale tokenization and tighter liquid supply creating a stronger repricing effect. The bear case, on the other hand, is tied to stagnant adoption and capital rotation away from XRP. Right now, XRP is trading around this bear case, and bulls are struggling to hold above $1.6.