XRP Price Falls To 4-Month Lows—Charts Signal Sell, On-Chain Data Turns Bearish

The XRP price slid on Wednesday to its lowest level in four months, hitting $1.14. The drop has contributed to a broader soft patch across crypto, and both chart analysis and on-chain indicators are now pointing to a more bearish environment for the altcoin. 

Market expert Sam Daodu, in a fresh breakdown of what’s driving the move, argued that there currently isn’t much for bulls to lean on. One of the most immediate issues is trend structure. 

According to Daodu, the XRP price is currently trading below its key moving averages — specifically the 7, 14, and 30-day averages — indicating that the short-term trend is bearish across multiple timeframes. 

He noted that the weekly exponential moving averages (EMAs) sit higher, clustered between $1.50 and $1.78, which has effectively capped every rebound attempt. That means even when XRP bounces, buyers have struggled to push it out of that upper resistance band.

The outlook also looks difficult when comparing the XRP price to the 200-day moving average, a level that Daodu sees as a dividing line between bullish and bearish regimes. 

The expert placed this key reference price at about $1.64, describing it as a “long climb back” from current trading levels at around $1.17 at the time of writing—underscoring how far the asset would likely need to recover to regain a more constructive trend.

On-chain activity adds another layer of concern for the XRP price. Whale withdrawals from Binance—often viewed as a quieter bullish sign because it can indicate large holders moving assets off exchanges to hold long term—have fallen sharply. 

Over the past 30 days, whale withdrawals are down to roughly 978 million XRP, which Daodu described as the lowest reading since 2021, essentially a four-year low. 

In the same period, CryptoQuant data indicates large-holder accumulation has stalled, implying that big holders aren’t adding with conviction during this decline.

With this in mind, Daodu’s bearish setup centers on three key price levels. The first is $1.14, which he frames as the near-term technical target. The second is $1.11, the low from February. 

The third is $1, aligned with the monthly Bollinger floor and treated as a potential endpoint if selling pressure persists. He also emphasized that if macro conditions don’t ease and whales keep showing reluctance to accumulate, these levels could become the next stops.

Daodu also suggested that the path forward may hinge on three factors. The first is whether the XRP price can defend the $1.14. If it holds, the bullish case can still play out; if it breaks, he expects the move could extend toward $1.11 and potentially into the $1 area. 

The second factor is the CLARITY Act floor vote. A vote scheduled before the August recess would help clarify the regulatory picture, while no vote could deepen disappointment and add to existing macro pressure. 

The third factor is whale behavior again—specifically, whether whale withdrawals from Binance start climbing back above the current 978 million XRP reading over the past 30 days. Rising withdrawals above that level would indicate renewed accumulation by larger holders.

Even with these bearish indicators, Daodu cautioned that the drop isn’t necessarily rooted in XRP-specific fundamentals. He argued that the XRP price was pulled lower alongside the rest of the market, meaning the next phase likely depends on how those broader market conditions develop. 

Featured image created with OpenArt; chart from TradingView.com