XRP Price Prediction: SuperTrend Buy Signal Meets Shrinking Supply as $1.24 Breakout Comes Into Focus

After a fresh SuperTrend buy signal appeared on the 4-hour chart, analysts are watching whether the XRP price can extend its recent recovery toward the $1.20–$1.24 region.

At the same time, new data shared by pro-XRP lawyer Bill Morgan shows that Ripple’s escrow holdings now account for less than 32.5% of the token’s total supply, challenging long-standing claims that the company still controls a significantly larger share of XRP. Together, these developments have renewed interest in the token’s short-term outlook while highlighting the importance of key technical resistance levels.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently identified a fresh SuperTrend buy signal on XRP’s 4-hour chart, marking the first bullish flip since mid-June. The indicator has attracted attention because previous signals successfully anticipated a 14% rally while also identifying earlier 19% and 16% market declines.

The SuperTrend indicator has issued its first XRP buy signal since mid-June, a setup that previously preceded a 14% rally. Source: Ali Martinez via X

When the signal appeared, XRP price today was trading around $1.05 to $1.08 before climbing toward the $1.11-$1.13 range in the following sessions. The move has strengthened confidence that buyers are gradually regaining control after several weeks of consolidation.

Although technical indicators never guarantee future price action, traders often view SuperTrend reversals as confirmation that momentum has shifted in favor of buyers, particularly when supported by broader market structure.

Away from the charts, fresh on-chain data has sparked another discussion around Ripple XRP and its circulating supply.

According to Bill Morgan, Ripple’s escrow now contains approximately 32.44 billion XRP, representing less than 32.5% of the network’s maximum 100 billion token supply. Roughly 67.53 billion XRP is currently circulating.

Ripple’s XRP escrow has declined from just under 36% of the total supply a year ago to below 32.5%, with 32.44 billion XRP locked in escrow and 67.53 billion currently in circulation. Source: Bill Morgan via X

Morgan noted that escrow represented just under 36% of the total supply about a year ago, highlighting a steady decline over the past twelve months.

“Less than 32.5% of XRP’s total supply is now held in escrow,” Morgan said while pushing back against repeated claims that Ripple still controls between 35% and 40% of the supply.

The gradual reduction stems from Ripple’s monthly escrow process. While the company unlocks 1 billion XRP each month, it typically re-locks only a portion of those tokens. On average, around 300 million XRP remains outside escrow and is allocated toward institutional partnerships, liquidity services, and ecosystem expansion.

Morgan also challenged assertions that Ripple controls more than half of the token supply, arguing that publicly available blockchain data does not support those claims.

From a chart perspective, XRP has also delivered another encouraging technical development.

The asset recently confirmed a bullish Break of Structure (BoS) above $1.0753, ending a resistance level that had capped price action for 23 consecutive four-hour candles. At the same time, the short-term trend shifted upward, with the 21-period EMA positioned at $1.0766 and the 55-period EMA at $1.0749, both aligning as rising support.

XRP confirmed a bullish 4-hour break with support near $1.075, revealing $1.20 as the next key upside target. Source: brokerchampionofficial on TradingView

With XRP trading near $1.118, the price briefly moved above the upper volatility band at $1.1031, suggesting the market may be temporarily extended after its latest advance.

Analysts note that a healthy pullback toward the $1.075-$1.085 zone could allow buyers to defend former resistance as new support before another upward attempt. Meanwhile, the broader bullish structure would remain intact unless the price closes below the previous swing low at $1.0225.

If momentum continues to build, the first technical objective sits near $1.15, followed by the psychologically important $1.20 level. Beyond that, the next major resistance remains around $1.348, although that would require considerably stronger buying pressure.

The broader technical picture presents a balanced but improving outlook.

According to TradingView’s latest technical summary, XRP currently holds an overall Neutral rating, consisting of 10 Buy, 9 Neutral, and 7 Sell signals. While the composite reading remains balanced, several shorter-term indicators continue to favor buyers.

Among momentum indicators:

• RSI (14): 52.62 — Neutral, reflecting balanced momentum.
• MACD (12,26): Buy, suggesting improving upward momentum.
• Momentum (10): Buy at 0.070.
• ADX (14): 22.93, indicating a developing but not yet dominant trend.
• Stochastic %K: 72.99, approaching overbought territory without generating a sell signal.

Moving averages also lean slightly bullish over shorter timeframes. The 10-period EMA ($1.0936), 20-period EMA ($1.1089), and 30-period EMA ($1.1349) all remain below the current XRP price, indicating that recent gains have pushed the asset above several important support levels.

Ripple’s XRP was trading at around $1.1390, up 3.28% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin 

However, longer-term resistance remains intact. The 50-period EMA ($1.1847) and 50-period SMA ($1.2011) continue to act as overhead barriers, while the 100-period and 200-period moving averages still point to a broader long-term downtrend.

Pivot point analysis also places immediate resistance around $1.2489, closely aligning with the frequently discussed $1.24-$1.25 target area.

The latest technical developments suggest that XRP is entering a stronger short-term recovery phase, supported by improving chart structure and positive momentum indicators. At the same time, updated escrow figures have added fresh context to ongoing discussions surrounding Ripple’s long-term supply management.

While the declining escrow balance does not directly determine XRP price prediction outcomes, it helps clarify misconceptions about Ripple’s current holdings and offers investors a more accurate view of the token’s circulating supply.

For now, traders are likely to watch whether XRP can maintain support above the $1.10-$1.13 region. Holding above those levels could keep the focus on the $1.20-$1.25 resistance zone, where a successful breakout would represent one of the strongest technical confirmations seen since June. At the same time, failure to hold key support levels could delay the next leg higher, making upcoming price action especially important for the near-term outlook.