Bitcoin Price Prediction: $10 Billion of BTC and ETH Option Expiry Hitting the Market Today

The largest single-day options expiry in recent months is clearing today, and the market is already pricing in the friction. Bitcoin price sits at $63,800, hovering just below the $64,000 max pain level as dealers manage delta exposure into settlement in its current bullish prediction. Ethereum trades around $1,890, staying near its own max pain threshold with conviction still absent on both sides.

According to data reported on July 31, 149,000 BTC options expired with a put/call ratio of 0.28, max pain at $64,000, and a notional value of $9.6 billion. Meanwhile, 435,000 ETH options expired with a put/call ratio of 0.63, max pain at $1,850, and a notional value of $830 million. Together, more than $10.4 billion in crypto options were cleared during a single session.

July 31 Options Data

149,000 BTC options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.28, a maximum strike price of $64,000, and a notional value of $9.6 billion.

435,000 ETH options expired, with a put-call ratio of 0.63, a maximum strike price of $1,850, and a notional value of $830… pic.twitter.com/x5ioOQI1CL

The BTC put/call ratio of 0.28 remains heavily skewed toward calls. That reflects bullish positioning, although many upside bets still expired out of the money. As the expiry passes, attention shifts to whether fresh positioning replaces those contracts or traders remain cautious.

Next comes dealer rehedging and a reset in open interest. That can spark a fresh directional move or leave prices drifting in thin liquidity. Meanwhile, the previous FOMC session offered little clarity, and the macro backdrop still lacks a strong catalyst for crypto.

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Bitcoin trades at $63,800, remaining pinned near the $64,000 max pain level. That is less coincidence than options market mechanics. With a 0.28 put/call ratio, the market leaned heavily toward calls, making $64,000 the level where the greatest number of contracts expired with minimal payouts. Once the settlement clears, that influence fades.

Immediate resistance sits between $65,500 and $66,000. A decisive break could open the way toward $68,000, although stronger volume must confirm the move. Meanwhile, ETF flows have remained soft this week, and US equity volatility has yet to pull fresh capital into crypto. That divergence continues to limit bullish momentum.

The bullish case sees post-expiry dealer hedging unwind, allowing Bitcoin to reclaim $66,000 and challenge $68,000 to $70,000 over the coming sessions. The base case keeps price ranging between $62,000 and $66,000 as traders wait for a fresh catalyst. A daily close below $62,000 would put $60,000 support back into focus.

Ethereum trades around $1,891, leaving the $1,900 level as an important resistance zone. Its max pain level sits at $1,850, placing the price only modestly above that mark after expiry. A sustained move above $2,000 would improve Ethereum’s technical structure and strengthen the near term outlook.

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BTC at $63,800 with an 8-month bear market still unresolved presents a clear asymmetry problem: the upside to $70,000 from here is roughly 9.5%, but the downside to $60,000 is equally accessible and better supported by current macro conditions. Rotation into early-stage Bitcoin infrastructure with a different risk profile is exactly the trade that gains attention in these sideways regimes.

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioned as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, meaning it targets sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution directly within the Bitcoin ecosystem, without sacrificing BTC’s base-layer security.

That’s a technically distinct proposition from existing L2 approaches, as presale has raised $32.9 million at a current price of $0.0136839, with staking available for holders during the raise period. The project includes a Decentralized Canonical Bridge for native BTC transfers and high-speed transaction execution that reportedly outperforms Solana itself on latency benchmarks.

Post-expiry BTC could grind sideways for sessions before resolving, the risk/reward math on early infrastructure plays looks different than chasing spot at current levels.

Research Bitcoin Hyper before the next presale stage closes.

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