4 key Bitcoin metrics suggest $80K BTC price is a discount

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped from $87,241 to $81,331 between March 28 and March 31, erasing gains from the previous 17 days. The 6.8% correction liquidated $230 million in bullish BTC futures positions and largely followed the declining momentum in the US stock market, as the S&P 500 futures fell to their lowest levels since March 14.

Despite struggling to hold above $82,000 on March 31, four key indicators point to strong investor confidence and potential signs of Bitcoin decoupling from traditional markets in the near future.

S&P 500 index futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Traders fear the global trade war’s impact on economic growth, especially after the March 26 announcement of a 25% US tariff on foreign-made vehicles. According to Yahoo News, Goldman Sachs strategists cut the firm’s year-end S&P 500 target for the second time, lowering it from 6,200 to 5,700. Similarly, Barclays analysts reduced their forecast from 6,600 to 5,900.

Regardless of the reasons behind investors’ heightened risk perception, gold surged to a record high above $3,100 on March 31. The $21 trillion asset is widely considered the ultimate hedge, especially when traders prioritize alternatives over cash. Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, with the DXY index dropping to 104.10 from 107.60 in February.

Bitcoin’s narratives of being “digital gold” and an “uncorrelated asset” are being questioned, despite a 36% gain over 6 months while the S&P 500 index fell 3.5% during the same period. Several Bitcoin metrics continued to show strength, indicating that long-term investors remain unfazed by the temporary correlation as central banks pivot to expansionist measures to prevent an economic crisis.

Bitcoin's mining hashrate, which measures the computing power behind the network’s block validation mechanism, reached an all-time high. 

Bitcoin mining estimated 7-day average hashrate, TH/s. Source: Blockchain.com

The 7-day hashrate reached a peak of 856.2 million terahashes per second on March 28, up from 798.8 million in February. Hence, there are no signs of panic selling from miners, as shown by the flow of known entities to exchanges.

In the past, BTC price downturns were associated with periods of FUD regarding the “death spiral,” where miners were forced to sell when becoming unprofitable. Additionally, the 7-day average of net transfers from miners to exchanges on March 30 stood at BTC 125, according to Glassnode data, much lower than the BTC 450 mined per day. 

Bitcoin 7-day average net transfer volume from/to miners, BTC. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings filed a prospectus on March 28 to sell up to $2 billion in stocks to expand its BTC reserves and for “general corporate purposes.” This move follows GameStop (GME), the US-listed videogame company, which filed a $1.3 billion convertible debt offering plan on March 26 while updating its reserve investment strategy to include potential Bitcoin and stablecoin acquisitions.

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Cryptocurrency exchanges’ reserves dropped to their lowest levels in over six years on March 30, reaching BTC 2.64 million, according to Glassnode data. The reduced number of coins available for immediate trading typically indicates that investors are more inclined to hold, which is particularly significant as Bitcoin’s price declined 5.1% in seven days. 

Lastly, near-zero net outflows in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between March 27 and March 28 signal confidence from institutional investors.

In short, Bitcoin investors remain confident due to the record-high mining hashrate, corporate adoption, and six-year-low exchange reserves, which signal long-term holding.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.