Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?

Key points:

• Bitcoin rebounds from another support retest, but fears over a Nashville conference-induced comedown are growing.

• The biggest Bitcoin gathering tends to accompany BTC price weakness.

• BTC price action can and will continue to experience drawdowns of 10%-20%, analysis stresses.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $110,000 at the May 27 Wall Street open amid concerns over a 30% BTC price crash.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin “market memory” may recall 2024 crash

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering after its latest support retest around $107,000.

As large-volume traders took advantage of the volatility, market commentators turned to potential risk factors, these coming from multiple sources.

Uncertainty over US trade tariffs and the return of Wall Street after the Memorial Day holiday combined with the ghost of BTC price losses from a year ago.

In July 2024, the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, Tennessee formed the basis for snap downside in early August which took BTC/USD down 30% to $49,000 from $70,000.

Now, with the same event getting underway for 2025, some wondered whether the market would experience an unwelcome sense of deja-vu.

“The sustained elevation in near-term vols suggests that traders are positioning around headline risk ahead of the Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, scheduled for 27 to 29 May. Focus is already building around the event’s speaker line-up, which includes JD Vance, Michael Saylor, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.

“Last July’s Nashville Bitcoin Conference offers a useful analogue. At the time, a keynote by President Trump coincided with a sharp spike in 1-day implied vols above 90, followed by a swift reversal and a nearly 30% decline in BTC within two days. That episode continues to shape market memory.”BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A 30% retracement from current levels would put Bitcoin back at $77,000 — around the area in which it set a multimonth bottom in April.

Continuing the thought, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe reiterated that the drop from $110,000 to the mid-$70,000 range had happened once before.

“Corrections do happen and they'll continue to happen,” he told X followers on May 26, arguing that a correction of up to 20% “shouldn't disappoint you.”

As Cointelegraph reported, various sources have suggested that the Bitcoin bull market is in its final innings before a protracted trend reversal.

Liquidity “magnet” offers $106,000 target

Tackling short-term price action, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades was among those using exchange order book liquidity to identify potential targets.

Related: BTC price seeks $155K 'trigger' — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

“The longer price hovers around this price region, the thicker the liquidity clusters above and below will become,” he summarized on the day alongside data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.  

“There's a big liquidity cluster down at ~$106K and quite a few sitting from $111K and up. Keep an eye out for when price taps either of [these] regions as those usually act as a magnet when price is close.”BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

CoinGlass itself showed the first chunk of ask liquidity being taken into the start of the US trading session.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.