Bitcoin acting ‘less Nasdaq,’ more like gold, despite 60% recession odds

Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and starting to trade more like precious metals, in another signal of Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset against global economic disruption.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

Bitcoin staged a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations. The US increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 125% as of April 9, while China raised import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.

Source: Alex Svanevik

Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns, Svanevik told Cointelegraph, adding:

“We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month."

Still, Bitcoin will continue benefiting from regulatory development and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related news, particularly with more developments on how the “Treasury is looking for ways to swap reserves into BTC,” added Svanevik.

Related: Bitcoin rally above $100K may follow US Treasury buybacks — Arthur Hayes

While the US Bitcoin reserve will initially hold BTC forfeited in government criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order instructed the government to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin.

🇺🇸 LATEST: Executive Director of Digital Assets Bo Hines said the US government may buy Bitcoin using tariff revenue. pic.twitter.com/Gfc2HiEJoL

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 15, 2025

The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.

Related: Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle

US recession odds rise to 60%, says JPMorgan

Despite Bitcoin’s resilience against tariff concerns, a potential US recession may slash investor demand for risk assets.

The probability of a US recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which wrote: 

“The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%.”Global Recession Outlook. Source: JPMorgan Global Economics

JPMorgan expects the Fed to “start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 — reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” added the report. 

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19