Bitcoin Below $76,000 as Markets Price a 92% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike

Bitcoin fell about 4% on Tuesday to below $76,000 and was changing hands near $75,900 early Wednesday, following the Clarity Act failure and heading into a Federal Reserve decision that markets have largely made up their minds about. The Federal Open Market Committee announces at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, with traders pricing a 92.5% odds of a quarter-point increase to 3.75%-4.00%.

It would be the first US rate increase in more than three years. The Fed has held its target range at 3.50%-3.75% at every meeting in 2026, following three cuts late last year. August CPI, released Friday, showed monthly prices rising 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast and 3.4% over 12 months. Brent crude above $100 amid the conflict with Iran has made the inflation picture harder to read as a one-off.

Beyond whether the Fed announces a rate hike, its outlook could also significantly impact Bitcoin’s medium to long-term trend. Loretta Mester, former Cleveland Fed president, recently told Yahoo Finance that the central bank will need roughly three quarter-point increases by the end of next year and should front-load them. Wednesday brings an updated Summary of Economic Projections, though Chair Kevin Warsh has in the past declined to submit his own rate projection to the dot plot and has called for the measure to be reformed.

The looming Fed decision follows Tuesday’s Clarity Act failure. Exchanges liquidated roughly $530 million in long positions over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, with bitcoin and ether longs absorbing over $180 million each. Bitcoin had climbed to nearly $80,000 from about $77,000 on Monday after reports that President Trump would concede on the bill’s ethics provisions, a rally that unwound as the vote approached.

A hike is not a settled question inside the Fed itself. Mester pointed to New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller as unconvinced. Warsh’s first meeting as chair in June held rates steady but raised inflation forecasts, and as recently as Sept. 4 traders had cut September hike odds to a coin flip.

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