Bitcoin Breaks Above Mid-Term Holder Breakeven – Is A Fresh Rally Brewing?

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged from around $108,000 on September 1 to above $115,000 at the time of writing – recording a gain of roughly 4% over the past two weeks. However, fresh on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a fresh rally that could propel it to new all-time highs (ATH).

According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $107,000 to just above $114,000 has lifted the digital asset over the Realized Price of mid-term (3-6 months) holders.

For the uninitiated, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held by wallets that last moved their coins within the past 3–6 months. It serves as a key pivot level, often acting as support or resistance that reflects sentiment and potential sell pressure from this cohort.

Per analysis by ShayanMarkets, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price currently stands at around $114,000. Now that BTC has surged above this level, the likelihood of an immediate sell-off has reduced significantly. The analyst added:

A firm breakout and hold above this level would confirm renewed confidence from mid-term holders, potentially serving as the launchpad for another bullish leg that could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above $114K risks shifting sentiment back toward caution and opens the path to deeper corrective moves.

Fellow CryptoQuant contributor Gaah brought attention to short-term holders’ (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), normalized with a 30-day moving average. The contributor noted that after four months of consistently operating above the break-even line, the indicator is now showing that STH are selling their holdings at a loss.

The STH selling their BTC at a loss indicates a “momentary loss of confidence” on the part of speculators, who are typically more sensitive to changes in price. Although BTC has jumped from $60,000 to as high as $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH has recorded descending peaks.

In past cycles, a sharp surge in price was usually accompanied by peaks in the Extreme Greed region, suggesting strong retail participation. However, the current market cycle did not see any such dynamic at play, hinting that the rise in price was likely sustained by institutional investors.

Gaah added that historically, market tops have only been confirmed when SOPR STH levels reached levels of extreme greed, a development that has not yet occurred in the current rally. As a result, the long-term trend remains firm, and the current realization of losses may just be a temporary healthy pullback.

That said, some analysts caution that Bitcoin may already be very close to hitting its peak for this market cycle. Others predict that BTC may slump in September, before it resumes its bullish trajectory in Q4 2025. 

Still, some analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching as high as $150,000 by Christmas. At press time, BTC trades at $115,050, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.