Bitcoin Hovers at $118K: Is the 2025 Bull Market Stalling or Reloading?

Bitcoin’s price movements in late July 2025 have revived debate over whether the crypto bull market is slowing or simply pausing. Trading near $118,000 on July 30, Bitcoin remains close to its all‑time high of around $123,000, but has shown reduced momentum in recent sessions.

Meanwhile, Ethereum is holding near $3,800 after a July surge that pushed it up more than 50% during the month, based on CoinMarketCap data.

Ethereum’s 50% Surge in July (Source: CoinMarketCap)

The Altcoin Season Index—often viewed as the market’s altseason gauge—has dipped to about 36. That level suggests Bitcoin is still outperforming most altcoins, limiting the breadth of the rally. Historically, broader gains across mid‑cap tokens have been a key sign of a full bull market, and the current reading suggests traders remain selective.

Institutional participation continues to provide support. A March 2025 executive order established a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, reinforcing the asset’s role in national holdings.

In parallel, corporate treasuries have allocated more than $86 billion to crypto this year. These moves mean that institutional exposure is deeper than in prior cycles.

JPMorgan estimates that more than $60 billion in new capital has entered crypto markets so far in 2025, demonstrating the strength of the bull market. Analysts attribute the inflows to ETF adoption, venture capital funding, and renewed confidence after regulatory clarity in several jurisdictions. The institutional presence has helped sustain prices, even as speculative trading cools.

Crypto inflows hit $60 billion in 12 months. JPMorgan's analysis revealed this amount surpasses investments made into private equity during the same timeframe. What does this shift mean for traditional finance?

Source: CoinDesk, July 2025 pic.twitter.com/9bshCvaGFR

Ethereum has been a major beneficiary of this trend. With ETF inflows driving demand, ETH rose sharply in July. Business Insider noted that institutional investors were among the largest contributors to its rally, which saw prices climb above $3,800. Daily volumes continue to exceed $15 billion, indicating strong liquidity.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has weakened. An analysis placed the BTC‑S&P 500 correlation near 0.2, suggesting the asset is moving more independently of traditional risk markets. That separation could make Bitcoin more attractive if equity markets remain volatile.

Not all indicators are bullish. Rising Bitcoin dominance—still above 60%, according to TradingView’s BTC.D chart—shows capital has not yet rotated broadly into altcoins, delaying the start of a true altseason.

This dynamic limits the depth of the rally and raises questions about whether the market has entered the kind of expansionary phase typical of past bull runs.

Analysts remain divided. Reports from different organizations project Bitcoin could rise to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing liquidity cycles and ETF inflows.

Others point to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming September meeting as a possible brake on momentum if interest rate cuts do not materialize.

Volatility remains a defining feature. Daily swings of 3% to 5% are common, and traders are balancing long‑term optimism with near‑term caution. Ethereum’s outperformance and steady inflows contrast with Bitcoin’s slower pace, while most altcoins remain muted.

Historically, August has been one of the best months for $ETH during bull markets. pic.twitter.com/9Xaj6De7Zd

For now, the bull market is not over, but it is showing signs of strain. Prices remain high, institutional backing is strong, and adoption continues to grow. Yet the lack of a broad altcoin rally and uncertainty around monetary policy keep the market in a holding pattern.

The next few months will be key in determining whether this cycle resumes its upward push or settles into consolidation.

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