Bitcoin MACD Turns Bullish Since 2023: Predictions Of Cycle Top And Next Bear Market Bottom

As Bitcoin (BTC) experiences a minor correction, trading below the critical $66,000 support level after several unsuccessful attempts to breach the $70,000 mark, analysts observe significant technical indicators that may signal future price recoveries. 

Notably, BTC’s weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned bullish for the first time since October 2023. This shift in the MACD parallels previous market behavior, particularly the substantial rally in the 2021 bull market.

Crypto analyst CryptoBullet has pointed out that the last time the MACD signaled a bullish trend, BTC was trading between $20,000 and $25,000 in 2023, which preceded a significant price spike to a new all-time high of $73,700 in back in March of this year. 

This context raises the possibility of significant gains ahead for the leading crypto as the market begins to show signs of recovery from previous consolidation periods over the past few months.

In a recent analysis shared on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), CryptoBullet also noted the similarities between the current market conditions and those of the 2021 bull cycle. 

The analyst emphasized the vertical rally in 2021, followed by a mid-term correction, suggesting that while the current correction may not be as severe, it has taken longer to unfold. 

CryptoBullet explained that BTC is breaking out of that multi-month consolidation as MACD crosses bullish again, hinting at the potential for a new all-time high in the last months of the year, alongside a lower high on the MACD indicator.

CryptoBullet’s bullish outlook extends over the next two years, forecasting a cycle top for Bitcoin between $95,000 and $100,000, with a subsequent bear market bottom anticipated at between $23,000 and $25,000. 

This forecast is based on Fibonacci wave analysis, where he predicts that the confluence of the 1.618 Fibonacci level and the top of the current channel will align with his target for Wave 5.

CryptoBullet anticipates that once the target range of $95,000 to $100,000 is reached—expected between December 2024 and March 2025—Bitcoin may face rejection, initiating the first wave (A) of the next bear market. 

The analyst predicts a temporary low during the summer of 2025, followed by fluctuations often referred to as a “Dead Cat Bounce” in the market, expected between September and December 2025. 

CryptoBullet warns that the most challenging phase, Wave C, could stretch throughout 2026, with a potential target of $23,000 to $25,000.

CryptoBullet acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in these projections, stating, “These are just my expectations. I try to be conservative here and not give you crazy $250,000 to $500,000 or $1 million targets.” 

In his analysis, CryptoBullet also notes that these scenarios could be invalidated if there is a dramatic shift in the macroeconomic landscape, which could lead Bitcoin to break out of its multi-year channel to the upside. In such a case, discussions around $170,000 to $200,000 targets for Bitcoin could become relevant.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $65,970, down 2% over the past 24 hours. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com