Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC Crashing Below 100k as Investors Enter Profit-Taking Mode

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering at $115,650 after falling into a descending channel. It’s now bumping against the lower boundary of the channel at $114,400 which is a key level to hold. The drop has raised questions if this is broad market weakness or just profit taking from investors who were sitting on gains at all time highs.

Political news is also influencing sentiment. US President Donald Trump announced a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine.

President Trump says he expects a trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin if "everything works out well" with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy https://t.co/JRmROK6IiD pic.twitter.com/AcNXo7VVNg

While details are unclear, proposals include joint air and sea patrols and intelligence sharing. If progress is made to end the war it could ease global risk aversion and provide indirect support to risk assets like Bitcoin.

Despite the short term dip institutional buyers are not selling. Treasury firms Metaplanet and Strategy bought 1,185 BTC this week, they believe in Bitcoin’s long term value. Shares of related companies are also up, reflecting corporate adoption.

Even as markets pull back, the big money isn’t slowing down.

MicroStrategy adds 430 BTC ($51M).
Metaplanet secures 775 BTC ($93M).
That’s over $140M in buys… on red days.

When institutions buy the dip, it’s not panic it’s positioning. pic.twitter.com/1nYLSN4w66

Market analysts at QCP Capital noted that implied volatility is low, traders expect Bitcoin to stay in a range. For now dips to $112,000 are buying and rallies to $120,000 are selling.

CryptoQuant data shows long term holders are taking some profits but at a slower pace than 2017, 2018-2019 and 2022-2023. This means the market is more measured and selling pressure is manageable.

Key takeaways for investors:

• Institutional activity: Treasury firms are still accumulating.
• Market positioning: Traders are cautious, volatility is low.
• Profit taking: Long term holders are taking out some profits but not aggressively.

The technicals suggest Bitcoin is at a make or break moment. Price was rejected at $121,950 where a shooting star candle formed a potential top. The subsequent three black crows confirmed bearish momentum. But recent dojis and spinning tops show sellers are losing momentum.

Momentum indicators add nuance. RSI is at 40 points which is oversold territory, there’s room for a bounce.Meanwhile the MACD histogram is flattening out, downside pressure is weakening. The 50 day SMA at $118,406 is a major hurdle for any bounce.

The uptrend is intact as long as Bitcoin holds above $114,400. A bullish engulfing candle above $117,000 could trigger a move to $118,400 and $119,300 and then $121,950. But if support fails Bitcoin could drop to $112,000 or $109,900.

Trade Setup:

• Bullish: Enter on a close above $117,000, target $118,400-$119,300, stop-loss at $114,200.
• Bearish: Short on a break below $114,400, target $112,000, stop-loss at $116,000.

In short, Bitcoin’s next move depends on if bulls can hold the $114,400 support zone. Traders should wait for candlestick confirmation before entering positions, momentum is balanced between bounce and correction.

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