Bitcoin price prepares for ‘70% to 80%’ gain as onchain metrics and spot BTC ETF inflows spike

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in a persistent downtrend since January, but the April 22 surge past $91,000 marks its first higher high breakout of the year and the potential start of a new longer-term uptrend.Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The higher high pattern occurred after BTC moved above its previous lower high and resistance at $88,500, but the real factor that will keep price afloat is buying volumes in various cohorts of the Bitcoin market.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $381 million on April 21, levels not seen since Jan. 30.

Rising spot BTC inflows, along with Bitcoin’s increase in price, point to a possible resurgence in institutional demand for Bitcoin, and the change in trend from the ETFs could offset the selling pressure that has put a cap on BTC price for months.

However, retail investor demand (buy volumes between $0 and 10,000) remained below 0%, which suggested that low volume buyers are not back yet. Over the past year, these investors have lagged behind BTC price breakouts, but they strengthen price momentum once the investor volume turns positive.

CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn highlighted that the present rally is leverage-driven rather than spot volume-driven. Glassnode data also pointed out that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased by $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.

For Bitcoin price to sustain a strong position above $90,000, the current discrepancy between futures traders and retail traders needs to decrease.

Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street's $13T wipeout

From a longer-term perspective, DYOR crypto founder Hitesh Malviya said BTC could gain 70% to 80% if it maintains a MVRV ratio of 2 for the next six weeks.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key onchain metric, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap—the value of coins at their last transaction price. Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 often signals overvaluation and market tops, while values near 2 have preceded strong price rallies.

Bitcoin's MVRV score remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, coinciding with its all-time high. Recently, the metric fell below 2 during the market correction, but it is now attempting to reclaim this key level.

Related: Bitcoin traders turn to $93K yearly open as BTC price hits 6-week high

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