Bitcoin Recovery Needs This To Happen, Glassnode Analyst Reveals

The lead research analyst at Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin supply clustered at the top levels might have to shift down before a sustained recovery can take shape.

In a new post on X, Glassnode lead research analyst CryptoVizArt has discussed how the Bitcoin supply is looking from the perspective of the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). The CBD is an on-chain indicator that tells us about the amount of BTC that was purchased at each of the levels that the cryptocurrency has visited during its history. Below is the chart for the metric shared by CryptoVizArt.

As is visible in the graph, there is a decent amount of Bitcoin supply that was purchased at recent price levels. This supply cluster has built up as the asset has consolidated in the region since February.

While this cluster isn’t small, it’s still less dense than some other zones. From the chart, it’s apparent that there are regions above $80,000 that host the break-even level of an extreme amount of supply approaching the 495,000 BTC mark.

These zones extend up to the top levels from the 2025 bull market. Earlier, the levels near $126,000 used to be even more dense, but as the digital asset sector has gone through this downturn, supply has changed hands at lower levels, weakening these clusters. However, the zones continue to be dominant relative to the clusters below $80,000.

“The Cost Basis Distribution heatmap shows a dense supply cluster in the $80k–$126k range, representing coins still held by buyers near cycle highs,” noted the analyst. Naturally, all of these holders are in a notable amount of unrealized loss right now.

Generally, underwater investors act as an impediment to price surges as they sell near their break-even. This effect could in part be what capped out the recovery rally in May. CryptoVizArt explained:

For a sustained recovery to take shape, this supply needs to gradually migrate into new buyers’ hands at lower cost basis levels. As that wall softens, the overhang pressure eases and demand has room to build conviction.

In the past, the process has often taken some time to occur for Bitcoin. “This transition can be achieved through deeper correction and/or bear market continuation,” said the Glassnode researcher.

It now remains to be seen how the CBD will develop for Bitcoin in the near future, particularly in terms of whether the top buyers finally capitulate to new investors.

Bitcoin plummeted to $59,000 last week, but the asset opened on Monday with some recovery as its price is now floating around $63,200.