Bitcoin risks new 'death cross' as BTC price tackles $84K resistance

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $84,000 into the March 19 Wall Street open as markets geared up for the US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin, risk-assets lack “tailwinds” into FOMC

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed local highs of $84,358 on Bitstamp.

Risk assets were on edge ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with the Fed expected to hold rates steady until at least June, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

The nature of subsequent commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell was of more concern to traders. Already hawkish, Powell faces pressure from US trade tariffs as inflation markets only just begin to fall.

“Tonight's FOMC meeting is highly likely hold rates steady. However, we will be watching closely for any dovish shifts, particularly on growth and inflation expectations,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers on the day. 

“Given that it will take months for the impact of tariffs to ripple through the economy, we expect the Fed to remain in ‘wait-and-see’ mode. The 2 April tariff decision, while well-telegraphed, remains a key uncertainty.”

While holding above $80,000 throughout the week, Bitcoin’s fate hung in the balance as US stocks saw notable downside.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index traded down 4% and 8.7% year-to-date at the time of writing compared to 10% for BTC/USD.

“TC has found some support at the $80k, but that seems tenuous at best amid broader macro weakness,” QCP continued.

“We won't attempt to call the exact moment when the music stops, but in the short term, we struggle to identify meaningful tailwinds to reverse this rout.”

Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter identified a potential silver lining in the form of increasing equities allocation by US retail investors.

“Retail net inflows into Nasdaq 100 index stocks as a percentage of market cap have reached 0.1%, the highest in at least a year. Retail flows have DOUBLED in just a few weeks,” it wrote in a post on X. 

“Additionally, JPMorgan’s retail investor sentiment score hit a record 4 points. This is ~1 point higher than the peak of the meme stock mania in 2021. Tesla, $TSLA, and Nvidia, $NVDA, were the most popular names picked up by individual investors. Retail investors are all-in.”

US stocks retail flows data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bad FOMC result risks $76,000 BTC price drop

Analyzing BTC price action, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital hoped that the upside gap in CME’s Bitcoin futures market would be fully “filled” with a spike to $87,000.

Related: Bitcoin futures 'deleveraging' wipes $10B open interest in 2 weeks

Such gaps, as Cointelegraph reported, continue to act as short-term price magnets.

“Bitcoin continues to successfully retest the CME Gap as support (orange box, $78k-$80.7k),” Rekt Capital explained alongside an illustrative chart.

“More, BTC has been doing so at a Higher Low (black).”

CME Bitcoin futures 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, meanwhile suggested that a dovish Powell could have a clear impact on price momentum.

“A dovish tone that reduces recessionary fears could send Bitcoin price above the 200-Day and 21-Day MAs, and avert what seemed like an imminent death cross between those two key MAs,” part of an X post stated.

Alan referred to two nearby simple moving averages, with the 200-day and 21-day MA sitting at $84,995 and $84,350, respectively.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 21, 200MA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bad news, on the other hand, could spark a retest of multimonth lows at $76,000, he warned.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.