Bitcoin Whale Entry Prices Diverge Sharply – Confidence Builds At Higher Levels

Bitcoin has surged to $104,300, confirming the uptrend and reinforcing the bullish outlook that many analysts projected for 2025. This move places BTC deep into range-highs territory, with the next major challenge now clearly in sight: the all-time high at $109,000. The market’s strength comes on the back of strong technical performance and increasingly optimistic sentiment, as BTC continues to lead the crypto rally and altcoins follow suit.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant adds further weight to the bullish narrative. One standout metric highlights the growing confidence among large holders: the absolute difference between the Realized Price of new whales and old whales now stands at $59.7K. Specifically, new whales have entered the market at an average price of $91.9K, while old whales’ basis remains at $32.2K. This translates to a 185% relative spread to the long-term holder (LTH) basis—a massive divergence.

This wide gap signals that a new wave of high-conviction buyers is entering the market at significantly elevated prices. Unlike the cautious whale accumulation during previous cycle lows, this phase reflects strong belief in continued upside, even at premium levels. It’s a clear sign that institutional FOMO may be kicking in.

Bitcoin is currently encountering resistance around the $104,000 mark—a level that may take time to break as it represents a critical barrier before entering price discovery above the all-time high near $109,000. The recent rally has shown remarkable strength, but as BTC consolidates just below its ATH, some selling pressure is expected.  A successful breakout could lead to a swift surge beyond $109K; however, failure to do so may result in short-term consolidation or retracement.

Top analyst Axel Adler shared key on-chain insights on X that highlight the evolving psychology of Bitcoin’s largest holders. According to Adler, the absolute difference between the Realized Price of new whales ($91.9K) and old whales ($32.2K) is $59.7K, representing a 185% relative spread to the long-term holder (LTH) basis. This sharp divergence reveals that new “whales” are entering the market at nearly three times the price of early entrants.

In comparison, the same spread in November 2022 was only 62%, indicating more cautious accumulation near the market bottom. The current surge to 185% reflects rising confidence and FOMO, with large buyers willing to accumulate even at elevated prices. For context, during the 2021 cycle peak at $63K, the spread widened to 437%.

This trend suggests that the market is entering a more aggressive accumulation phase, where belief in higher prices is driving demand despite the premium. If bulls manage to absorb the resistance around $104K, it could mark the start of a parabolic move—fueled not just by momentum, but by conviction from both retail and institutional players betting on a new Bitcoin all-time high.

Bitcoin is trading around $103,000 after reaching a high of $104,300 earlier today. The 4-hour chart shows BTC facing resistance at the $103,600 level, which aligns with a key supply zone from late December 2024 and early January 2025. This area acted as a previous rejection point during the last major rally and is now being tested again as potential resistance.

BTC’s recent surge from the $87K–$90K consolidation zone has been aggressive, breaking above both the 200 EMA and 200 SMA (currently at $91,806 and $89,400, respectively) with strong volume. This confirms bullish strength and trend continuation, suggesting that buyers are still in control. However, the current range between $103K and $104K is historically significant, and bulls may need to absorb selling pressure before attempting a move toward the all-time high near $109K.

If BTC consolidates above $100K and holds this level as new support, it would strengthen the case for continued upside. On the flip side, failure to break above $103,600 cleanly could lead to a short-term pullback. Market structure remains bullish overall, but this resistance zone will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin enters price discovery or pauses for accumulation.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView