Data Shows Whales Stay Calm While Bitcoin Climbs—What Are They Waiting For?

Following Bitcoin’s correction dropping to as low as $74,000 earlier this month amid the recent global tariff war, the asset has now begun to see steady recovery with its price hovering above $85,000 after a 10% surge in the past week as President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause affecting all countries except China.

The announcement helped ease market concerns, contributing to renewed momentum in both equity and digital asset markets.

As Bitcoin finds its footing in upward momentum, a new analysis from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost suggests that large holders on Binance—one of the most active crypto exchanges—are responding to macroeconomic uncertainty with a cautious, but notably non-reactive, approach.

The insights were detailed in a post titled “How Are Binance Whales Reacting to Market Uncertainty?” which examined key on-chain metrics.

According to Darkfost, two primary indicators reveal the evolving behavior of Binance whales. The first, the Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR), compares the top 10 inflows to total inflows on Binance to gauge whale involvement.

A rising 365-day moving average (DMA) for the EWR reflects a growing concentration of inflows from large holders over time, indicating their stronger influence during long-term trends.

However, a recent decline in the 30DMA points to reduced short-term activity. This suggests that whales may be taking a step back from active trading, neither selling aggressively nor showing signs of panic.

The second metric, Whale to Exchange Flow, analyzes the value of whale inflows to Binance over a 30-day period. Here too, the trend is down—falling over $3 billion, mirroring similar drawdowns observed during past corrections in 2024.

Combined, these signals suggest that Binance whales are opting to hold their positions rather than sell into current market conditions, potentially signaling confidence in longer-term prospects despite ongoing uncertainty.

In a related CryptoQuant post, analyst Mignolet highlighted a continued pattern of buying strength on Binance. According to the analyst, the market buy ratio—an indicator tracking the volume of market buy orders—has not only remained intact but has recently surpassed previous highs.

This trend highlights persistent demand despite recent market corrections and volatility. The recurring nature of this pattern suggests that there is underlying buyer strength even as external macroeconomic forces, such as trade policies and regulatory shifts, continue to influence sentiment.

Historically, a sustained increase in the buy ratio has preceded medium-term rallies, although confirmation of a new trend will require follow-through in both price action and volume metrics.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView