On-Chain Clues Suggest Bitcoin Bounce Might Be a False Signal—Here’s What to Know

Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilization following its earlier correction this month, which saw the asset fall to as low as $74,000. Over the past week, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, gaining nearly 10%, and now trades above $84,000.

This upward movement has reignited optimism among investors, though some analysts remain cautious about calling this a definitive trend reversal.

According to recent on-chain data, the current recovery in BTC may be linked to improving demand indicators. However, it is suggested that the broader market structure still needs to confirm whether this bounce reflects a sustainable rally or is merely a temporary pause in the ongoing correction.

CryptoQuant contributor Kripto Mevsimi particularly drew attention to Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand metric, specifically the 30-day sum, which has started to rebound from negative territory.

This trend is being observed as a potential sign of changing market dynamics. However, Mevsimi warns against assuming this is the start of a new bullish cycle, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s behavior during the latter part of the 2021 cycle.

During that period, demand remained suppressed for an extended timeframe, even as prices temporarily recovered. Only after a long consolidation phase did the market experience a genuine structural shift.

Mevsimi highlights that although momentum may be improving, more time and confirmation are necessary before a macro-level trend reversal can be confirmed.

Another market signal worth watching comes from Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges by trading volume. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reports that inflows of Bitcoin from short-term holders (STHs) to Binance have been steadily decreasing, suggesting a decline in immediate selling pressure.

The data indicates that average realized prices for STHs currently hover around $92,800, meaning many recent sellers have exited at a loss.

Darkfost notes that inflows from STHs dropped from approximately 17,000 BTC in November to around 9,000 BTC more recently. This downtrend in selling could provide some support for Bitcoin’s current price levels.

Still, the analyst emphasizes the need for continued monitoring to determine if this reduction in selling pressure persists. The easing of short-term holder activity could reduce overhead resistance and contribute to market stability, but confirmation of accumulation or a broader bullish phase remains elusive.

STH selling pressure declining on Binance

Tracking $BTC inflows on Binance is a useful way to visualize potential selling pressure, as the platform handles significant trading volumes.

Short Term Holders have been under considerable stress recently, with many even ending up… pic.twitter.com/lwOe45H7L3

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 13, 2025

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView