Short-Term Bitcoin Holders See 10% Profit – Potential Impact On Price?

The Bitcoin market experienced a modest recovery over the past week following the 15.7% correction in the latter half of December 2024. Amidst this recent price gain, developments from the short-term holders (STH) activity have revealed significant indications for Bitcoin in the coming days.

According to a recent X post, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode shared a data report on the Bitcoin short-term holders’ MVRV ratio in relation to market price. 

In crypto, the market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is a critical analysis tool used to gauge whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued. It is also used to track the holders’ profitability with values above 1 indicating profit and below 1 meaning a loss. 

Based on Glassnode’s report, the Bitcoin STH MVRV ratio currently stands at 1.1 suggesting that short-term holders i.e. investors who acquired Bitcoin within the past 155 days, are on average, experiencing a 10% profit. Considering BTC’s price fall in recent weeks, there might be increased selling pressure as these holders move to realize their gains, leading to short-term price resistance. 

However, data from Glassnode indicates that the Bitcoin MVRV STH ratio previously reached peaks of 1.35 in November 2024, and 1.44 in March 2024. These MVRV values suggest that short-term holders may tolerate higher profitability levels before triggering a widespread sell-off.

If Bitcoin bulls maintain the current price recovery with rising demand, the STH MVRV ratio could rise closer to these historical peak levels, which could signal a confirmation of Bitcoin resuming its market uptrend.

In relation to the Bitcoin STH MVRV ratio, it is understood that 1.0, which indicates no profit or loss, is a pivotal value acting as a support during bullish trends or resistance in a market downtrend. 

Glassnode report reveals that the current STH MVRV ratio shows that 1.0 corresponds with the $87,000 price zone. According to data from the Cumulative Bid-Ask Delta, there is an air pocket between $87,000 and $71,000 i.e. there is low trading activity or fewer significant buy orders in this price range. Therefore, if the price of BTC slips below $87,000, it will hit no significant support until $71,000 translating into a major price decline.

At the time of writing, the premier cryptocurrency continues to trade at $98,081 reflecting a 1.02% gain in the past day. With a market cap of $1.94 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest asset in the crypto market.