Bitcoin, Ethereum to end Q1 in the red, ‘vertical swing up’ unlikely

Bitcoin and Ethereum are poised to suffer their worst first quarter in years unless they can pull off a huge rally in the next few days.

Ether (ETH) has dropped 37.98% so far over the first quarter of 2025, its worst Q1 decline since 2018, when it plunged 46.61%, according to CoinGlass data. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 6.49% so far over the quarter, which is slated to end on March 31 — marking its worst Q1 performance since 2020, when it saw a 10.83% decline. 

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that a “vertical swing up into the end of the quarter looks unlikely.” 

Ether has posted an average return of 78.23% in the first quarter of every year since 2017. Source: CoinGlass

Hundal said that the crypto market will be “flying a little blind” until the middle of April when the broader market should have better clarity on US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.

“The economic data shows a global economy in decent shape,” he said. 

Some analysts say it may only be a matter of weeks after that before Bitcoin sees its next significant rally.

Crypto commentator Colin Talks Crypto said in a March 19 X post that Bitcoin may begin its “next major blast-off” around April 30. Meanwhile, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said earlier this month that there’s more than a 50% chance Bitcoin will hit all-time highs before the end of June.

The first quarter has historically been Ether’s strongest and Bitcoin’s second-best. Since 2017, Ether has averaged a 78.23% gain in Q1, while Bitcoin has seen an average return of 51.62% since 2013.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $87,558, while Ether is trading at $2,059, up 5.08% and 5.88% over the past 24 hours, respectively.

Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC ratio — showing Ether’s relative strength to Bitcoin — is at its lowest point since May 2020, sitting at 0.2348, according to TradingView data.

The ETH/BTC ratio is sitting at 0.02348 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView

The rest of the crypto market has followed the downtrend of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, with the entire crypto market capitalization declining 11.65% since Jan. 1, sitting at $2.88 trillion at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Related: Bitcoin price has 75% chance of hitting new highs in 2025 — Analyst

While many in the crypto industry were highly optimistic going into Q1 2025 following a strong end to 2024 after Bitcoin tapped $100,000 for the first time after Trump’s November election win, unexpected macroeconomic conditions were largely to blame for the crypto market’s downturn at the beginning of February.

After Bitcoin retraced below $100,000 in February, amid Trump’s imposed tariffs and uncertainty around the future of the US federal interest rate, the broader market sentiment turned fearful. The sentiment-tracking Crypto Fear & Greed Index was reading a “Neutral” score of 47 as of March 26.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.