Slower EV Shift Supports Platinum and Palladium Demand in 2026

That change matters for platinum and palladium since automakers remain their biggest end market through catalytic converter demand.

New projections indicate a lower electrification trajectory in large vehicle markets. The amount of hybrid vehicles in the global powertrain mix is growing, and it is working to save the demand for metals associated with combustion and hybrid engines.

Metals Focus said the mood at PGMs Industry Day in Johannesburg shifted from crisis-driven cost-cutting to measured optimism. Analysts said rising hybrid adoption has given the sector a new lease of life after earlier forecasts pointed to a faster battery electric vehicle transition. Importantly, hybrids still require catalyst loadings close to those used in traditional internal combustion vehicles.

The powertrain forecast chart supports that shift clearly. GlobalData data illustrates that the hybrid perspective of 2026 will rise in the above forecast, and the battery electric vehicle perspective of 2026 will fall to the previous forecast. The chart indicates that hybrid penetration will be near the upper 20 range in 2026, with BEV penetration remaining near the low 20 range. That modification aids in ensuring that more vehicles remain in the catalyzed category.

Metals Focus expects global hybrid output to reach 26.3 million units this year, up 12% from a year earlier. BEVs are expected to make up about 18% of global auto sales, while hybrids are forecast to account for 28% of production, well above older projections near 4%. Analysts said this leaves the share of catalyzed vehicles higher than previously forecast.

The latest TradingEconomics palladium chart showed the metal at $1,406 per ounce, up $48 or 3.54% on the day. Even after that rebound, the one-year chart still shows palladium well below its 2026 peak above $2,000. That leaves the market in recovery mode rather than in a full trend reversal, but the bounce does suggest traders are reacting to stronger demand expectations.

That matters to PGMs, as in the context of the auto industry, nearly 60% of the total offtake is attributed to the auto industry. Platinum has 40%-50% of its demand in autos, and palladium even has more exposed demand, with vehicle production comprising of 80%-90% of all its demand.

According to the revised powertrain projections, the focus group, which is a metals focus, says that the demand in the PGM will be nearly 780,000 ounces in 2026, with an estimated demand of approximately 180,000 ounces per million units produced.

The technical TradingView chart of platinum had a weaker setup. XPTUSD ended at $1858.95 on an open of $1827.10, a high of $1908.70, and a low of $1809.40. The price is under the Bollinger midline at $2,052.61, and MACD is negative with the MACD line standing at -83.77, and the signal line stands at -60.48. What it means is that platinum is not yet assured of a bigger recovery even amidst an improved outlook for the auto demand.