Trump Speaks with Elon, But Not About Crypto

Despite high expectations and significant betting interest on Polymarket, Trump refrained from mentioning either Bitcoin or the broader category of crypto during the two-hour conversation.

The dialogue, which was delayed by over 45 minutes due to what Musk described as a “massive” attack on X, covered illegal immigration, the economy, artificial intelligence, and global warming. 

Musk attributed the delay to a concerted DDOS effort to prevent Trump from being heard, although this claim was met with skepticism. A report from The Verge, citing an inside source, suggested a high likelihood that Musk’s explanation might not hold water, while cybersecurity experts did not confirm a DDOS attack, noting only international outages.

In the world of predictive betting, enthusiasts had wagered over $600,000 on the mention of “crypto,” reflecting a 65% probability. The stakes were also high for mentions of “Bitcoin,” with bets peaking at a 69% chance. However, none of these anticipated mentions materialized during the interview.

Trump did, however, touch on other hot-button topics that bettors had their eyes on. Terms like “MAGA,” “illegal immigrant,” and even “tampon” were part of the discourse, confirming some of the bettors’ predictions. Notably, when it came to “Tesla,” Trump avoided the specific term, opting instead to refer to Musk’s company as “your cars,” which dodged another popular betting topic.

One particularly successful bettor, known online as ‘bama1234’, managed to net over $1 million by accurately predicting the presence or absence of these keywords during the broadcast. His most lucrative bet was on Trump not mentioning “crypto,” which alone added $336,918 to his winnings.

Despite the lively and broad-ranging discussion, some listeners might have felt the absence of direct mentions of cryptocurrency, especially considering Trump’s recent engagement with the topic at the BTC 2024 conference. 

While the X audience was in the millions, and supportive of the opportunity to hear what Trump had to say, mainstream coverage was less supportive as this collection of headlines shows.

Source: X

On X, James Altucher, summarized the discussion stating that Trump’s common sense policies were:

Do more vetting at the border (as in legal immigration) to prevent criminals coming in.

1. Have an energy policy that doesn’t depend on our enemies for fossil fuels while we continue to explore and innovate on solar/nuclear.
2. The biggest threat to not only America but the world is nuclear weapons in the hands of bad nations.
3. Cut Dept of Education because US is consistently getting lower on education vs the world and yet spending more per student.
4. Have a more efficient government in terms of spending. Everyone says this but nobody does anything about it. Is there a way to do something about it?
5. Inflation is the result of an increased money supply due to higher government (and inefficient govt spending). If money supply increases faster than our goods and services then inflation results.

For those wishing to listen to the entire conversation, here is the link and timestamps.

0:00 Attack on 𝕏 servers and introduction

2:14: Assassination attempt on Trump and miracle survival

20:04: Stopping illegal immigration

36:27: Importance of a strong president

49:59: Inflation, debt and government spending

1:09:38: Climate change and sustainable energy

1:21:05: Kamala’s track record & policies

1:29:34: EU, NATO, Ukraine war

1:36:25: Excessive regulation and building the future

1:44:45: The danger of the political divide

1:52:43: Summary of Trump’s positions

1:53:21: Crime and lack of respect for police forces

2:02:10: Conclusion: A fork in the road