Dogecoin May Face An ‘Ugly’ Drop Before The Weekend, Analyst Warns

In a freshly shared four-hour chart of the DOGE/USDT trading pair on Binance, crypto analyst Carlos Garcia Tapia warns of potential downside for Dogecoin as weekend trading approaches. “If bears break this pattern, it’ll get ugly… especially since the weekend is coming,” Tapia warns.

His chart posted via X depicts an ascending wedge formation running into a confluence of resistance between $0.338 and $0.343, as well as a notable support zone in the $0.31 region.

The chart highlights higher lows (marked as “LL” on the chart) forming the lower boundary of an ascending wedge. Meanwhile, overhead resistance (a rectangular zone around $0.338–$0.343) has repeatedly capped upward price movements. This wedge appears to be compressing price action—often a setup for a significant breakout or breakdown.

A horizontal resistance zone around $0.34 stands out. DOGE’s price has attempted multiple short-term moves above this level but failed to secure a confirmed breakout, suggesting sellers are firmly defending that zone.

On the downside, a green box spanning roughly $0.310 marks an area where buying interest has historically picked up. Below that level, the chart references a lower support marker near $0.262, indicating a more substantial potential drop if the wedge pattern breaks down decisively.

The analyst specifically points to the upcoming weekend as a wildcard. Historically, lower trading volumes on Saturdays and Sundays can exacerbate volatility. If Dogecoin fails to hold its rising trend line—currently near $0.328–$0.330—and liquidity thins out, the price could swiftly test the lower support around $0.310, or potentially slide toward the $0.262 zone if the selling momentum accelerates.

While a breakout above $0.343 could invalidate this bearish setup, Tapia’s cautionary note underscores the significance of a potential breakdown from the wedge formation. Weekend price action often diverges from midweek patterns due to reduced participation, meaning a sharp move in either direction could unfold more quickly than usual.

The daily chart supports Tapia’s thesis. There, Dogecoin (DOGE) finds itself under intensifying downward pressure as price action hugs a persistent downtrend line. After hitting a local high in December, DOGE has retreated below key exponential moving averages (EMAs). The 20-day EMA (currently at approximately $0.3457) and the 50-day EMA (near $0.3473) have both curved lower, signaling waning short-term momentum.

A glance at the chart reveals that DOGE is now just slightly above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, calculated around $0.313. This Fib zone has acted as the most crucial support since mid-December, but any decisive daily close beneath it could accelerate selling. Traders are keeping a close eye on the 100-day EMA (around $0.3179), which is sandwiched just above this Fib level.

If the price fails to defend the area between $0.313 and $0.317, then eyes will turn to the 200-day EMA at roughly $0.2613 as a critical long-term support. If this level breaks to the downside as well, the 0.236 Fib at $0.212 could quickly become a reality.