Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bitcoin Faces Fed Watch, Geopolitical Risk, and Reversal Signals

After rallying to an all-time high of $124,474 last week, Bitcoin has lost over 7% and now consolidates near $115,000. With technical indicators flashing warning signs and global events driving sentiment, investors are watching closely to see whether $114,750 marks a bottom or if deeper declines are still ahead.

Bitcoin price today is struggling to regain momentum after last week’s record high of $124,474. The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell nearly 5% and is now consolidating around $115,000, raising concerns among investors about short-term weakness.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) appears to be starting a new bullish leg, with the 1D MA50 rebound and pivot trend-lines playing a key role in supporting the ongoing cycle. Source: TradingShot on TradingView

Technical indicators are flashing mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44 on the daily chart, below its neutral 50 level, pointing to bearish pressure. The MACD recently showed a bearish crossover, adding weight to the downside case. Analysts note that a close below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $115,046 could pave the way for a drop toward $112K.

Still, traders are watching the compression between the rising trendline and resistance at $116,855. A breakout above that level could ignite a rally toward $119,300–$120,000. As QCP Capital highlighted, “Sideways trade seems likely, with dips near 112,000 attracting buyers and rallies toward 120,000 meeting supply.”

Global politics remain a key driver for Bitcoin news today. US President Donald Trump confirmed plans to host trilateral talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an effort to ease tensions.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $115,000 amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, but with downside liquidity absorbed, a gradual reversal is anticipated. Source: Ted via X

Such developments could improve risk appetite across global markets, as a potential breakthrough toward ending the war in Ukraine may boost risk-on sentiment and support assets like Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, corporate buyers remain undeterred by volatility. Treasury firms such as Metaplanet and Strategy added more than 1,100 BTC during Monday’s dip, signaling continued institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Another major factor influencing sentiment is the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy shift. Speculation is growing that Chair Jerome Powell may be replaced before his term ends in 2026, with President Trump reportedly considering candidates with more dovish leanings.

Bitcoin’s last cycle ended due to the Fed’s hawkish shift in 2022, but expectations of a dovish policy shift under Trump’s Fed nominee suggest the current cycle is far from over. Source: Alex Krüger via X

Economist Alex Krüger argued that “a more dovish monetary policy could benefit Bitcoin,” especially with 83.9% of traders betting on a rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Lower rates typically make traditional safe assets less attractive, potentially redirecting capital into higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Coinbase’s David Duong added that an easier policy could “unlock greater participation from retail investors in the medium term.”

Despite near-term weakness, several on-chain and derivatives metrics suggest the correction may be temporary. Data from Cointelegraph points to $114,750 as a potential local bottom, citing four key signals:

• Options Skew: Recently spiked, historically a precursor to strong rebounds.

• ETF Flows: Short-term outflows seen as normal within a $152 billion market.

• Top Trader Positions: Long-to-short ratios at OKX and Binance remain stable.

• Stablecoin Demand in China: Tether discount remains steady, showing no worsening panic.

History offers context. In April, Bitcoin plunged to $74,587 before rebounding more than $11,000 in four days. Analysts suggest a similar recovery path could unfold if $114,750 holds as support.

Bitcoin price prediction remains uncertain in the near term as markets balance geopolitical risk, Fed speculation, and weakening technical momentum. A decisive move above $116,855 could trigger a push toward $120,000, while failure to defend $114,400 risks retests of deeper support at $112,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $115,082, up 0.07% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) via Brave New Coin

In the broader picture, Bitcoin halving 2025, expanding adoption of the Lightning Network, and continued corporate accumulation reinforce the long-term bullish outlook. For now, traders remain focused on the Fed’s September meeting and whether risk sentiment improves following Trump’s proposed trilateral talks.