Bitcoin Price Steady after ETF Flows, Ahead of Today’s Expected Rate Cut

Bitcoin (BTC) had a standout performance on Wednesday, marking its fourth-best day of the year, fueled by Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory. Throughout his campaign, Trump expressed support for the crypto industry, and the market took notice.

The top cryptocurrency by market cap surged over 9%, hitting an all-time high of $76,442, according to BNC data. This rally stands alongside other notable spikes: a 9.7% gain in late February that pushed BTC to a previous peak in March, a 10% rebound after a mid-year dip, and a 12% leap following the yen carry trade unwind on August 5. Each of these moments underscores Bitcoin’s resilience and ability to capitalize on major economic and political shifts.

Bitcoin is currently $76,333, holding on to this week’s gains, prior to today’s Federal Reserve meeting. In the wake of Donald Trump’s election win, the spotlight now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Analysts anticipate a 25 basis-point cut, expected later on Thursday. Typically, lower borrowing costs are a boon for risk assets like crypto, but this time, the impact might be muted. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are nearly unanimous, assigning a near-100% probability to the Fed trimming its benchmark rate to 4.5%-4.7%. In other words, the market has already baked in the cut, making it more of a formality than a game-changer.

Source: BNC Bitcoin Liquid Index

This surge in activity followed President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, which has ignited fresh optimism in the cryptocurrency market and renewed investor interest in Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). With IBIT’s trading volume eclipsing major stocks like Berkshire Hathaway, Netflix, and Visa, the ETF market for Bitcoin is rapidly gaining momentum as a favored asset class among investors.

On November 6, IBIT led the pack, marking its highest-ever trading day and contributing to a combined trading volume of nearly $6 billion across nine Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. ETF strategist Eric Balchunas described the day’s trading as a “banger day” for Bitcoin ETFs, which collectively saw inflows of $622 million — the highest level of inflows in recent months. Fidelity’s FBTC ETF outperformed in net inflows, adding over $300 million, while Ark Invest’s ARKB brought in $127 million and Bitwise’s BITB accumulated $100.9 million. Despite IBIT’s high trading volume, it experienced a net outflow of $68 million, contrasting with substantial inflows across other Bitcoin ETFs.

Source: X

The increased trading activity has been attributed in part to expectations that Trump’s administration will adopt policies favorable to the digital asset sector. Trump has promised to position the U.S. at the forefront of the global digital economy, a stance that has boosted Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative asset. 

Bitcoin’s price reached a record high of $76,475 on Wednesday, holding steady near $75,000 by Thursday morning. Some analysts believe Trump’s pro-business agenda could encourage further investment in Bitcoin, particularly if his administration pursues regulatory clarity for crypto assets.

Bitcoin’s gains have further amplified its performance gap with gold, with the latter experiencing declines amid inflation concerns and anticipated rate hikes. Bloomberg data shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equities has risen, with its 60-day correlation to the MSCI Global Equity Index at 0.66, a level rarely seen over the past five years. This correlation suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly moving in tandem with stock markets, influenced by Trump’s market-friendly policies.

Market dynamics indicate that investor confidence in Bitcoin is strengthening, particularly among institutions. Dylan LeClair, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, predicts that as Trump takes office, the U.S. government may begin accumulating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. LeClair anticipates that “other sovereigns will be discreetly front-running” the U.S., suggesting that Bitcoin’s role in global finance could further expand in the near future.