Bitcoin Rally At Risk: This Critical Resistance Could End BTC’s Bullish Run

As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to hold $80,000 as support, some market analysts have warned about a crucial resistance area that could make or break the flagship crypto’s bullish rally.

In a Tuesday analysis, market watcher Ali Martinez highlighted a “crucial resistance barrier that has the potential to put an end to the recent Bitcoin bull rally” that has sent the price to its highest levels in months.

He explained that BTC has been attempting to clear the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near $82,500, for three consecutive days. A breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward the $94,000 area, Martinez affirmed, while a rejection could send the price to retest the 50-day SMA around $75,000.

However, the failure to reclaim this level may suggest that the market “is struggling to find the follow-through volume needed for a breakout.” The analyst pointed out that a recent shift in miners’ behavior could reinforce the resistance area above.

Over the past month, Bitcoin miners have been steadily taking profits, offloading over 3,400 BTC they’ve held since the $72,000 range to cover operational costs or lock in gains at the recent highs. “This added supply could strengthen the overhead resistance,” he affirmed.

Meanwhile, retail and futures traders are “aggressively increasing their risk appetite,” with the Estimated Leverage Ratio currently at a yearly peak, indicating an overextended market reliant on borrowed funds.

Most of this leverage is skewed toward long positions, creating liquidation walls at $75,000, $73,000, and $70,000, Martinez added, warning that if Bitcoin can’t flip the $82,500 resistance into support, “the market may look to flush this leverage by testing those lower levels.”

Analyst Rekt Capital offered a macro perspective, suggesting Bitcoin may fail to reclaim the crucial resistance and fall to new lows in the coming months. He highlighted BTC’s breakdown from its macro triangle base around $82,500, which has sent the price retest the 50-month EMA.

Historically, when Bitcoin breaks down from its macro triangle, the price retests its 50-month EMA as support and briefly bounces before dropping toward its bear market bottom.

“On this occasion, (…) we’ve rebounded already. But history suggests that this rebound is going to be limited, and we’ll be losing the 50-month EMA as support and then turning it into resistance to transition into a cluster beneath it,” the analyst affirmed.

Rekt Capital also emphasized that the 50-month EMA roughly aligns with the 2021 all-time high (ATH), which was a major resistance-turned-support area around the early 2024 ATH rally and opened the door to the 2025 run toward its latest ATH.

As Bitcoin retests this area as support once again and faces strong resistance around the macro triangle base, the analyst asserted that this rebound may be weaker, adding that history suggests the 50-month EMA support will likely be lost and turned into resistance.

“That’s pretty compelling evidence to support the weaker rally thesis as well, because if we do reject from the confluent region of resistance, which is the macro downtrend and the macro triangle base, then indeed this rally (…) will be a lot lesser than the magnitude of that rally that we saw in 2024,” he concluded.