Bitcoin Recovery Above Key Cost Basis Level Fails As BTC Falls Under $77,000

Bitcoin has witnessed a drop back below the $77,000 level, and with it, the cryptocurrency has lost its recovery above the short-term holder cost basis.

In a new post on X, analyst Maartunn has talked about how BTC’s move above the short-term holder Realized Price ended in rejection. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that measures the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin network.

When the spot price of the cryptocurrency is greater than this metric, it means the investors as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, the asset being under the indicator implies the dominance of loss on the blockchain. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific investor group is of interest: the short-term holders (STHs). This cohort includes all addresses that purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price for this group over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin dropped below the STH Realized Price with its crash in the last quarter of 2025 and stayed below it until the recent recovery rally. This surge finally resulted in the cryptocurrency climbing back above the line, thus putting the STHs back into the green.

The profitable status couldn’t last for the cohort, however, as a pullback in the asset has meant that the spot price is once more below the indicator. In the past, the Bitcoin spot price finding rejection around the STH Realized Price is something that has often been witnessed during bearish phases.

The reason behind the trend lies in selling from the group’s members that arises as a result of panic-exiting at the break-even level. The recovery attempt in January also fizzled out near the cost basis of these investors.

In some other news, the long-term holders (LTHs), the counterpart of the STH cohort, have seen an uptrend in their supply recently, as CryptoQuant author Darkfrost has pointed out in an X post.

From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin LTHs saw their supply go down during the second half of 2025, indicating that the diamond hands of the network were selling. The trend changed this January, with the netflow of the group turning positive. Currently, this cohort controls a total of 15.26 million BTC.

Bitcoin dropped to a low of $76,700 during the latest retrace, but the coin has since bounced back a bit to $77,700.