Don’t Celebrate Bitcoin Price Above $70,000, Analyst Says It’s “Very, Very Bad”

Crypto market analyst Marmot has sounded the alarm on the latest Bitcoin price surge, warning that the cryptocurrency’s rally above $70,000 is a “very, very bad” signal. He argues that Bitcoin has not flipped into bullish territory, urging investors and traders not to mistake the recent rebound as a sign of sustained recovery. Based on his technical analysis, Marmot believes that Bitcoin is yet to reach its true bottom, warning that the flagship cryptocurrency could still face another sharp decline.

Marmot has called Bitcoin’s price rebound above $74,000 a trap. In a post on X, he emphasized how dire the situation surrounding BTC is, suggesting that the market could be headed for a deeper pullback to new lows once the uptrend reverses. The analyst noted that Bitcoin’s pump above $72,000 was not without reason, highlighting that the bounce was a carefully designed whale trap to attract retail buyers before a broader sell-off.

Marmot urged investors not to mistake this relief rally as the beginning of a new bull run. He noted that similar rallies have historically lured traders into poorly timed entries, only to be flushed out. The analyst also outlined why 90% of BTC traders typically get wiped out in November 2026, when previous bear market cycles bottomed. 

According to Marmot, during a bear market, Bitcoin often experiences bull traps, in which sudden price pumps create the illusion that the downtrend has ended. This move tends to fuel hope and trigger FOMO among investors, leading many to buy into the rebound.  Once this happens, Bitcoin’s price reverses sharply to the downside, often falling back to levels it reached before the rally began, triggering heavy liquidations. 

The analyst emphasized that, beneath the recent price strength, global liquidity is drying up as institutions quietly exit the market to limit downside risk. With weaker demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing heavily on market sentiment, Marmot believes Bitcoin’s bear market bottom is still very far away. 

In his chart analysis, Marmot referenced past cycles, noting that Bitcoin has historically experienced long drawdowns before forming a bottom. He pointed out that in 2012, Bitcoin traded sideways for up to 405 days before it hit a bottom. In the 2026 cycle, the cryptocurrency found a price floor after about 362 days, and finally, in 2020, the market declined for roughly 376 days before reaching a bottom. 

Based on this historical bear market pattern, Marmot estimates that Bitcoin’s capitulation phase in this cycle could occur between July and November 2026. His chart shows that BTC’s price could rise even higher above $78,000 before experiencing a final pullback below $54,000, where it may likely find its true bottom.