Wait For Bitcoin At $20,000? This Analyst Says No

An analyst has explained using on-chain data that Bitcoin has a major demand bucket at the current price levels, so it won’t hit $20,000 anytime soon.

In a new post on X, analyst Ali has explained that some large entities accumulated at the $25,000 to $30,000 range. The indicator of interest here is the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD), which, in short, tells us about the amount of Bitcoin that was acquired at the different price levels of the cryptocurrency.

Here is a chart that shows how the URPD of the current Bitcoin market looks like:

Notice that the URPD here is “ATH-partitioned.” What this means is that the price ranges here have been defined by creating 100 equally spaced partitions between zero and the all-time high (ATH) of the cryptocurrency.

From the graph of the Bitcoin URPD, it’s visible that the price levels between $25,000 and $30,000 are host to the cost basis of a particularly large amount of the supply.

Ali notes that most people, including major institutional investors like Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy and Elon Musk’s Tesla, purchased a significant number of coins between these levels.

The levels being so dense with supply isn’t only significant because of the fact that these large entities believe those prices were worthy buys, but also due to how investor psychology tends to work out.

Generally, whenever the price retests the cost basis of a holder, they may become more probable to show some reaction. How they would react depends on their sentiment and profit/loss status prior to the retest.

If they had been i9n profits before the price declined towards their cost basis, they may believe the price would go up again in the future so they would accumulate more at the dip.

On the other hand, them being at loss before may make them sell at their cost basis, as they would find the idea of breaking-even more enticing than potentially going back into losses.

There are some dense price buckets above the current level, meaning that BTC could feel resistance when it would retest them due to such investors exiting at their break-even.

If Bitcoin declines instead, however, it could feel strong support, as the buckets below are zones of some pretty major demand, so at least some of these investors might be inclined to buy more at these same levels. Thus, a decline below this range could be unlikely for the cryptocurrency.

“So when they tell you “It’s too late to buy BTC” or “Wait for $20k,” please ignore them!”, advises the analyst.

Bitcoin is up almost 7% during the past week, but the coin’s surge has slowed down recently as its price has mostly been consolidating around $28,500.