Bitcoin Bull Run Nears Its Climax: Cycle Peak Indicates 95% Completion

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently reached a new weekly high above the $112,000 mark, signaling a potential new uptrend for the leading cryptocurrency. This movement may represent the final phase of the current cycle for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. 

Market analyst CryptoBirb has indicated that this uptrend could last for approximately 50 more days, emphasizing that Bitcoin is now 95% through its cycle, which has spanned 1,017 days since the lows of November 2022.

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets have peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days after significant lows, suggesting a target timeframe for this cycle’s peak could fall between late October and mid-November 2025. 

The analysis highlights the typical relationship between Bitcoin’s Halving events and subsequent price peaks. Since the last Halving in April 2024, 503 days have passed, with past data showing that price peaks usually occur 518 to 580 days following such events. 

As seen in the chart below, Bitcoin is currently 77% to 86% of the way through this timeline, entering what the analyst refers to as the “hot zone”—a period of heightened volatility and potential price movements.

However, CryptoBirb cautions that historical trends indicate that after reaching a peak, Bitcoin typically experiences a significant decline, often dropping by 70% to 80% over a 370 to 410-day timeframe. 

This bearish phase is projected for approximately the first and second quarter of 2026, with a historical probability of a bear market in that year reaching 100%. Before this potential downturn, the analyst expects a final surge, with about 50 days remaining before the market may peak.

September, often recognized as a weaker month for Bitcoin, has shown an average decline of 6.17%. Although third quarter statistics can be mixed, with a median increase of 0.80%, the overall average tends to reflect a decline due to larger losses. 

The typical seasonal pattern suggests that a poor September could be followed by stronger performance in October and November, with September 17 identified as a crucial date to watch by the analyst.

On the technical front, Key support levels are identified at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) of $95,900 and the 200-week SMA at $52,300. 

The daily chart reveals further technical insights, including a 200-day breakout point at $111,000 and a 200-day SMA at $101,000. CryptoBirb has identified local support between $107,700 and $108,700, while resistance sits at $113,000 to $114,100.

Looking ahead, both short-term and long-term trading trailers are currently in a bearish mode. CryptoBirb asserts that if Bitcoin falls below the critical levels of $107,000 to $108,000, bearish sentiment could intensify, potentially leading to secondary corrections in the range of 20% to 30%. 

Fortunately, cryptocurrency miners appear to be faring well, with the mining cost established at $95,400, suggesting a healthy market environment with minimal capitulation risk.

Lastly, the analyst cautions against the potential for a market peak leading into the altcoin season in October and November. CryptoBirb suggests to mark calendars for October 22, as it could be a pivotal date in Bitcoin’s cycle.

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $112,886, down nearly 11% from all-time high levels. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com